Low Tropical Cyclone Threat Forecasted for Early April
The Philippine Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a weather bulletin regarding the tropical cyclone threat potential for the period of April 1 to April 14, 2024. According to the latest forecast, the first week of April shows no presence of a tropical cyclone-like vortex (TCLV) within the PMD’s jurisdiction. While there is a possibility of TCLV development over the southern region, the chances of it escalating into a tropical cyclone within the first week are low.
Moving into the second week of April, model forecasts continue to suggest a low likelihood of TCLV formation near or within the PMD. Consequently, the threat of a tropical cyclone developing during this period is considered unlikely.
The PMD emphasizes that these forecasts are based on the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) model and should be used as guidance only. The data is still undergoing validation and verification, and as such, should be interpreted by trained professionals. The PMD will closely monitor any changes in the forecast pattern and issue updates as necessary.
For further inquiries, the public can reach out to the PMD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Division (CLIMPS-CAD) at (02)8248-0800 loc. 906 or via email at pagasa.climps@gmail.com.